SciTech 2017 Presentation

Sustainment in the 2060's

Capitalism in Low Earth Orbit in the Year 2060 is only one example
of the proliferation of long-lived complex systems that will demand
a great sustainment method

Having discussed, here and here how a unique confluence of historical events has led to the proliferation of complex systems that are increasingly being employed for longer and longer lifetimes. And how a unique confluence of challenges and talent has led to the complex system sustainment management model. It is now time to show how these historical events project into a future where more and more long-lived complex systems will proliferate.

Having been born in 1952, there is some slim chance I may live to see if my predictions for 2062 are realized. But if the specifics are not exactly the same, surely the general idea of increasingly long-lived complex systems will be.

For more on Judy Jetson's High School, see
http://interstellar-scout.blogspot.com/2015/03/the-jetsons-and-space-age-googie.html

Certainly not the only example, but perhaps the most sexy will be our commercialization of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and near-space. 

Even today we are seeing Amazon's plans for global flying warehouses, Google creating near-space world-wide internet relays, and Made in Space launching our first tries at orbital factories. CubeSats are being designed to be launched as kits where the packing is recycled and remanufactured to create the satellite structure the kit parts are mounted to. Robots have long been the cheaper and more often used option for any activity in space or on our neighboring celestial bodies. 

Made in Space is a company with a vision

Our future on-orbit garbage collectors will most certainly be robots capable of orbital transfers. Future plans call for recycling centers on orbit to reclaim the mass that cost so much to be launched. The mass will be reused by orbiting factories which will create new devices, probably robots, for use in orbit.  

Orbital transfers take energy. And energy will not only be solar or nuclear, but fuel depots will circle the Earth in near space and LEO with tanker satellites to deliver fuel as needed to those vehicles or robots unable to arrive for self-service. 

LEO will be a computer-choreographed dance, now fast, now slow, in tune with the profit motive. 

With life support so expensive, any job that can be done via robot instead of a human will be. This includes the day to day capital exchange decisions concerning purchase of fuel, repairs, manufactured items, & etc. The long-awaited fourth-party consumer advocates predicted by Doc Searls and others (Cluetrain Manifesto, Intention Economy) will become a reality. 

To add yet another layer of complexity, some orbiting systems will be swarm clouds while others will be single structures. Some will support space tourism others will support asteroid mining. Some will view the Earth in support of high school classes and others will scan the stars for profits. Some decisions will be placed on automatic via optimization algorithms while others will be played out in real time by CEOs, committees, entrepreneurs, and elementary school children. 

Within this reality, what will be the definition of a system that requires sustainment? This will be partially defined by mission and partially defined by who winds up responsible to sustain which system. 

Let's imagine one example. 

There will likely be more than one corporation exploring the skies for asteroid rocks valuable enough to return to Earth. Will their systems include not only the interplanetary vehicles, equipment, and ground support, but also the LEO support systems? 

Look to today's trucking firms to guess the answers. Most do not own the gas stations and freeways, but they do own dispatch offices and often have their own warehouses and repair facilities. A future sustainer will help keep a world-wide array of near-space and LEO warehouses operating using global communications supplied by other entities. Robot trucks will transfer goods according to optimizing algorithms that conserve fuel while making timely deliveries and the sustainer must think ahead to keep all the hardware and software functioning at the assigned reliability levels. 

Another example: Tourism vehicles and their embedded software will not only have a readiness factor of reliability and safety, but also one associated with fun. The sustainer will be expected to keep that in mind. 

What do you imagine capitalism in LEO will be like in 2062? Are you ready?